
China's total lithium battery production will increase by 24% year-on-year in 2024
2025-06-12
On the 27th, China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the operating conditions of the national lithium-ion battery industry in 2024. In 2024, the total output of China's lithium-ion batteries (hereinafter referred to as "lithium batteries") increased by 24% year-on-year.The operating conditions show that in 2024, China's lithium-ion battery industry will continue its growth trend. According to the information of the lithium battery industry standard announcement companies and the industry association, the total output of lithium batteries in the country is 1170GWh (gigawatt-hours, 1 gigawatt-hour equals 1 million kilowatt-hours), an increase of 24% year-on-year. The total output value of the industry exceeds 1.2 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below).In the battery segment, the output of consumer, energy storage and power lithium batteries in 2024 will be 84GWh, 260GWh and 826GWh respectively. The installed capacity of lithium batteries (including new energy vehicles and new energy storage) exceeds 645GWh, an increase of 48% year-on-year. Affected by the decline in the price of lithium battery products, the total export volume of lithium batteries in the country last year was 434.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5%, a narrower decline of seven percentage points than in the first half of 2024.
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Solid-state technology triggers the final battle of lithium batteries
2025-06-12
In the past decade, lithium batteries have boosted the explosive growth of new energy vehicles by increasing their energy density from 100Wh/kg to 300Wh/kg. Today, for higher energy density and higher safety, liquid batteries can no longer meet downstream demand, and solid-state batteries have already started a new round of battery technology competition.
However, the real leader is never in the spotlight.
From the development of the lithium battery industry in the past decade, battery equipment manufacturers are the key driving factor, and the accuracy of equipment determines the upper limit of battery performance. Since the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the new national standard for power batteries in April this year, it has shown a positive attitude on the policy side. With the superposition of market demand, the concept of solid-state batteries has become a key sector for big funds to hunt.
In recent trading days, a number of stocks such as Tiantie Technology, Longpan Technology, Guoxuan High-tech, Liyuanheng, and Pioneer Intelligence have risen strongly, and the sector's popularity has risen sharply.
At the same time, catalytic factors on the news side are constantly superimposed. The Gaogong Solid-State Battery Summit on June 10, the International Solid-State Battery Technology Conference on June 19, the Electrolyte Forum in July and the Shanghai International Solid-State Battery Conference will be held one after another, which will form a continuous theme stimulation to the market. Some research institutions predict that the commercialization of solid-state batteries will achieve a synergistic breakthrough in 2025, and equipment pioneers will dominate a new round of technology-driven industrial cycle.
There are many solid-state concepts, and mass production is the touchstone
In the A-share market, there are not many companies capable of getting involved in the field of solid-state battery equipment. Liyuanheng, Pioneer Intelligent, and Haimuxing are currently the three companies with the highest attention.
In terms of recent market performance, Liyuanheng is undoubtedly the most eye-catching. However, the company is a concept pioneer, and the speed of equipment delivery and mass production is relatively lagging. It is understood that although the company delivered a solid-state battery pilot production line to Guoxuan High-tech in 2022, it was aimed at semi-solid-state batteries. As for all-solid-state batteries, its sulfide electrolyte coating equipment is still in the verification stage, and the installation and testing of production line equipment has also been delayed until 2026. Judging from the company's performance report, the company has suffered a huge loss of 1 billion yuan in 24 years, and there are already many problems within the company. According to market sources, due to the performance loss, the company has undergone a major reshuffle, and a large number of R&D technicians have left. Whether normal equipment delivery can be achieved needs to be paid attention to.
As the leader in traditional liquid lithium battery equipment manufacturing, although Lead Intelligent also claims to have full solid-state full-line production capabilities, its core equipment relies on foreign imports. In 2024, the yield of the equipment delivered to Korean customers was only 65% due to interface impedance problems, requiring secondary transformation, and the actual order collection cycle was extended. The technical level and delivery capabilities were also questioned by the market. However, as the leader in the new energy equipment industry, Lead Intelligent's technical strength, management capabilities, strong financial strength and R&D strength have made good endorsements for its future development.
In its 2023 annual report, Haimuxing mentioned that it completed the delivery of the solid-state battery pilot line in August 2023, and completed the mass production of the oxide plus lithium metal negative electrode technology route and the sulfide plus silicon-carbon negative electrode pilot line in 2024. It is the first company in the industry to complete the mass production and delivery of solid-state battery equipment and complete the commercial verification of downstream application scenarios. It is also the first equipment supplier in the industry to deliver different solid-state battery technology solutions to two battery manufacturers at the same time. Its technical capabilities are more than two years ahead of its peers, which shows its strong technical strength. In addition, the company has exclusively mastered the lithium metal negative electrode interface processing technology. The Falcon high-energy lithium metal solid-state battery developed in cooperation with Xinjie Energy has passed the Ehang Intelligent eVTOL manned flight test. Its energy density has reached 480-500WH/KG, the cycle has reached 800-1000 times, and the endurance time has reached 1 hour, breaking the international record for similar tests. However, its stock was dragged down by the 2024 annual report performance and the 2025 first quarter report performance. It is understood that the company's orders on hand have exceeded 10 billion, and the newly signed orders have doubled compared with 24 years. Combined, this year may be the lowest point of Haimuxing's stock price.
In a horizontal comparison, the current market has seriously misjudged the solid-state battery equipment targets: Liyuanheng and Pioneer Intelligent have attracted financial attention due to early concept speculation, but the actual technical level and mass production capacity are questionable; Haimuxing has built a high competitive barrier with its two-year industrialization first-mover advantage, but it has been ignored by the market due to the short-term pressure of annual report and first quarter report data. Rather than saying that this is a market miss, it is better to say that it may be a good investment opportunity given by the market.
The technical advantages in the subdivided fields are significant, and the valuation repair expectations are strong
The industrialization of solid-state batteries follows the law of "equipment first, materials follow up, and complete vehicles land". The industry expects that the peak period of equipment bidding will come in 2025-2026. Equipment manufacturers with mature full-line mass production delivery capabilities and mastering core process technologies will lead this round of industrial upgrading and enjoy a significant valuation premium. The trillion-dollar market is about to explode again. Let us wait and see which company will become the next dark horse in the trillion-dollar solid-state battery equipment market with its leading industrialization pace and deep technical barriers.
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Electric vehicles can travel over 1000 kilometers
2025-06-12
The reporter learned from CATL's 21C Innovation Laboratory that the research results of lithium metal batteries independently completed by the laboratory's Ouyang Chuying and Wang Hansen's team were recently published in the top international journal Nature Nanotechnology, marking that CATL's basic scientific research capabilities have been recognized at the highest level in the field of nanotechnology. The study analyzed the failure mechanism of lithium metal batteries under actual product design conditions and proposed innovative electrolyte design style principles to achieve lithium metal battery products with high energy density and long cycle life."Nature Nanotechnology", as one of the five major sub-journals of "Nature", is a top journal with global influence in the field of nanomaterials science. The CATL research team quantified the electrolyte failure mechanism through original dynamic tracking technology and revealed for the first time the core consumption path of lithium metal battery failure. The research results showed that the electrolyte salt consumption in the cycle was as high as 71%, far exceeding the expectations of the academic community. Based on this discovery, the team introduced low molecular weight diluents to optimize the electrolyte formula, achieving a cycle life doubled to 483 times compared with the previous generation of products. The same electrolyte design logic can further support battery energy density exceeding 500Wh/kg, making electric aviation scale and electric vehicles with a range of more than 1,000 kilometers possible.In addition, the dynamic tracking technology created by the research team also allows the dynamic evolution of active lithium and electrolyte components throughout the battery life cycle to move from a "black box" to a "white box", providing a new perspective for the lithium battery industry. Ouyang Chuying, co-president of CATL's R&D system and dean of the 21C Research Institute, said: "By quantitatively analyzing the interface reaction path, we have redefined the priority of electrolyte design and transformed this achievement into a technical solution that can be applied on a large scale. This is a valuable opportunity to bridge the gap between academic research and the actual application of commercial batteries."As a global leading new energy innovation technology company, CATL is committed to building a world-class R&D platform and guiding the design of cutting-edge chemical systems based on the underlying logic of electrochemistry. In 2024, CATL's R&D investment reached 18.6 billion yuan, with a total of more than 43,000 patents authorized and pending worldwide, and the increase in patent applications ranked first in the industry for five consecutive years. At the same time, CATL has built a material design automation platform that integrates more than 20 dedicated simulation software and 30 self-developed core algorithms, promoting a leap-forward improvement in R&D efficiency.
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Lithium battery manufacturers compete for low-altitude economy, and aviation power batteries become a battleground
2025-06-07
Domestic lithium battery manufacturers are competing for low-altitude economic eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft).
Recently, battery manufacturer Xinwanda released the latest aviation power battery "Xin Yunxiao 2.0" and announced that its first-generation product has been mass-produced; on the other hand, battery giant CATL also announced that it has obtained the international aerospace quality management system certification and officially met the aviation industry standards; earlier in March, Yiwei Lithium Energy announced that it would become the supplier of low-voltage lithium batteries for the next-generation aircraft prototype of the flying car company Xiaopeng Huitian. A reporter from the China Times found that many battery manufacturers, including CATL (300750.SZ), Xinwanda (300207.SZ), Farasis Energy (688567.SH), Yiwei Lithium Energy (300014.SZ), Zhongxin Aviation (HK3931), and Guoxuan High-tech (002074.SZ), have successively entered the field of aviation power batteries.
Why has aviation power battery become a battleground for lithium battery manufacturers?
Many industry insiders told the China Times reporter that there are two major factors behind this: First, the lithium battery industry has fallen into serious internal competition in recent years, and companies are in urgent need of finding new market space to break the dilemma; second, the low-altitude economy is a new track, and its derived aviation power battery market is still in the research and development stage, the market competition pattern has not yet been established, and the development prospects are broad. Guojin Securities released a research report in April this year and predicted that by 2030, the domestic eVTOL battery market will reach 112.6 billion yuan.
"At present, many domestic leading battery manufacturers are actively deploying in the field of low-altitude industry, and regard aviation power batteries as a strategic track, and the investment intensity has increased significantly." Wang Zeshen, Secretary-General of the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, said in an interview with the China Times reporter.
"Now the lithium battery industry is seriously involuted, and most manufacturers should not just try it out, but want to make great efforts to do it, because this is a good entry point to break the current internal situation of the industry." Mo Ke, editor-in-chief of Zhenli Research Institute, told this reporter.
However, at present, there is still a big gap between "ideal" and "reality". As a new type of aircraft, the power required for vertical takeoff of eVTOL is 10 to 15 times that of ground travel, and the battery energy density requirement is much higher than that of automotive power batteries. At present, the energy density of mainstream lithium batteries is usually around 150Wh-250Wh/kg. For eVTOL, its large-scale commercial application requires batteries with an energy density of ≥400wh/kg.
This means that for most lithium battery manufacturers, there is still a long way to go to win the "cake" of aviation power batteries.
Entry: Energy density sprint
Battery energy density ≥400wh/kg is the prerequisite for eVTOL to truly fly on a large scale, and it is also the first hurdle that lithium battery manufacturers must cross to enter the low-altitude economy.
At the 17th Shenzhen International Battery Technology Exhibition held recently, Xinwanda officially launched the aviation power battery product "Xin Yunxiao 2.0", with an energy density of 360Wh/kg. This is the second-generation product launched by Xinwanda since it laid out the low-altitude economy in 2023. Its first-generation product is said to have been mass-produced and completed the 100-kilometer flight verification of a 100-kilogram aircraft.
Xu Zhongling, director of Xinwanda Research Institute, revealed that the company is also pre-researching 400Wh/kg aviation power batteries. At the same time, a five-generation technology upgrade route was formulated, and it is planned to achieve the goal of breaking through 500Wh/kg of the energy density of all-solid-state batteries in 2027.
In contrast, the industry leader CATL entered the game earlier and is one step ahead in the research and development process. As early as July 2023, CATL and COMAC and other entities jointly established COMAC Times (Shanghai) Aviation Co., Ltd. In August 2024, CATL invested hundreds of millions of dollars in Fengfei Aviation, a leading domestic eVTOL mainframe, to officially start the application layout of aviation power batteries. In June of that year, Zeng Yuqun, chairman of CATL, revealed at a public event that the company had successfully tested a 4-ton civil electric aircraft and was accelerating the research and development of an 8-ton electric aircraft. The battery used in this project is a condensed state battery, with a single cell energy density of up to 500Wh/kg.
In January this year, Fengfei Aviation's 2-ton eVTOL equipped with CATL batteries officially debuted on the Spring Festival Gala. Recently, CATL also announced that it has passed the AS9100 system certification, the highest quality standard in the global aerospace field, indicating that the company's products have international qualifications in the fields of drones and eVTOL.
In addition to the industry leaders, a number of lithium battery manufacturers are also sprinting for the development of aviation power batteries. Farasis Energy claims that the company has become one of the few companies in the world that has mass-produced and installed eVTOL batteries and completed tens of thousands of actual tests, and the company's eVTOL semi-solid batteries have entered the industrialization stage. In an interview in December last year, Jiang Weiran, director of the Farasis Energy Research Institute, revealed that the company's third-generation semi-solid-state battery is in the product verification stage, with an energy density of 400Wh/kg.
In addition, Ji Yajuan, director of the Frontier Materials Research Institute of EVE Energy, revealed at an event in April this year that the company's silicon-based soft-pack battery technology has made significant progress, with a product energy density of up to 380Wh/kg, which can provide power support for low-altitude aircraft. In March this year, Yiwei Lithium Energy announced that the company had received a supplier designated development notice from the flying car company Xiaopeng Huitian, and would provide the latter with the next-generation prototype low-voltage lithium battery.
"At present, the leading battery manufacturers have regarded aviation power batteries as the 'second growth curve', and R&D investment has continued to increase. The industry as a whole is in the 'technical verification-small batch trial production' stage." Zhang Ruifeng, president of Shenzhen Automotive and Aviation Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from the China Times that the low-altitude economy has become a strategic stronghold for battery manufacturers. The core lies in the triple drive of policy dividends, technological upgrades and market blue oceans. From the perspective of technological iteration needs, traditional automotive power battery technology is approaching saturation, and aviation power batteries, as a new track, require higher energy density, higher power density and extreme environment reliability. This provides battery manufacturers with a "new battlefield" for technological breakthroughs. Cutting-edge technologies such as lithium metal batteries and solid-state batteries can bypass traditional lithium battery patent barriers and achieve overtaking in lanes.
"The current international competition in the field of aviation power batteries presents a 'Three Kingdoms' situation. First, international giants such as SES in the United States and Bosch in Germany have entered the supply chain of eVTOL leading manufacturers such as Joby by virtue of their leading lithium metal battery technology, but their cost control ability is weak, and the cost per Ah is 2-3 times that of domestic companies; second, domestic leading companies rely on supply chain cost advantages and policy support to dominate the medium and low power fields (such as drones below 100kW), but the high-end market (such as manned eVTOL) still needs to break through the airworthiness certification barrier; third, cross-border players such as GAC Aion, Geely and other car companies have developed their own batteries, trying to open up the 'vehicle-battery' closed loop, but their aviation technology accumulation is insufficient, and it is difficult to shake the position of professional battery manufacturers in the short term." Zhang Ruifeng said.
Dilemma: Solving the unreachable triangle
The so-called aviation power battery refers to the power battery used by low-altitude aircraft eVTOL. eVTOL can be divided into manned and cargo-carrying eVTOL. Cargo-carrying eVTOL is equivalent to large drones, while manned eVTOL is equivalent to small aircraft. The latter is the main direction of low-altitude economic development and the main target of major lithium battery manufacturers.
Compared with new energy vehicle batteries, aviation power batteries have more stringent requirements on performance indicators. Wang Zeshen introduced that this is mainly reflected in three aspects. First, the energy density needs to exceed 400-500Wh/kg, far exceeding the 200-300Wh/kg of automotive batteries, so as to meet the endurance and load requirements of the aircraft; secondly, the power output needs to take into account 8-10C rate takeoff and landing and 3-5C cruising, and the battery needs to have high-rate discharge capability; finally, the safety needs to meet the zero failure risk under extreme conditions (such as 15-meter drop, 20℃ low temperature), and redundant power supply needs to be guaranteed in case of failure.
Because of this, high energy density, high charge and discharge rate, and high safety are also called the "unreachable triangle" of aviation power batteries. The solution for major lithium battery manufacturers is to achieve a balance between the three with new technologies, including solid-state batteries and metal lithium batteries. For example, CATL has increased the energy density to 500wh/kg through condensed batteries; Xinwangda first took the semi-solid battery route and is developing all-solid-state batteries to improve energy density and safety.
However, the current solid-state battery technology has not yet matured, so battery manufacturers still need to make trade-offs among the three. Xu Zhongling once revealed in an interview: "For example, in some high-frequency take-off and landing short-distance scenarios, we will sacrifice some battery charging speed and use battery replacement to solve the reliability problems of other performance."
Wang Zeshen told reporters that the current aviation power batteries are still facing three major technical bottlenecks. On the one hand, the energy density is limited. Although solid-state batteries are expected to break through to 400-500Wh/kg, they are limited by interface contact, thermal stability and high cost, and it is difficult to commercialize in the short term. On the other hand, it is difficult to balance power and energy density. It is necessary to break through the "seesaw effect" through material innovation and structural design to meet the needs of all stages of flight. In addition, the battery is not adaptable to extreme environments, and there is a lack of aviation-specific certification system, so the cost remains high. These challenges urgently require a coordinated breakthrough in materials, system design and airworthiness standards.
An eVTOL company executive told our reporter that the aviation power batteries of domestic battery manufacturers are just starting out and cannot fully meet the performance requirements of large-scale commercial use of eVTOL, and "range anxiety still exists objectively."
"As far as I know, domestic eVTOL products now generally use domestic batteries. However, the aviation power batteries of domestic battery manufacturers are just starting out and cannot fully meet the performance requirements of large-scale commercial use of eVTOL, and range anxiety exists objectively." Chen Yan, chief strategy officer of Zero Gravity Aircraft Industry (Hefei) Co., Ltd., a domestic eVTOL host manufacturer, said in an interview with our reporter that in order to effectively solve the problem of range anxiety, the company's fixed-wing aircraft and multi-rotor eVTOL products have adopted a battery replacement design. It is optimistically estimated that aviation power batteries are expected to become a large-scale market like new energy vehicles in the next five years, and the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain such as OEMs and battery factories will form a relatively compatible development situation.
Chen Yan believes that in the future, aviation power batteries need to improve performance in two major aspects. One is to make further breakthroughs in battery energy density, and the other is to further improve safety, especially thermal runaway. Specifically, he believes that the requirements for batteries for large-scale commercial applications of eVTOL include energy density ≥ 400wh/kg and cycle life ≥ 2000 cycles.
"As far as ternary lithium batteries are concerned, the development direction is likely to be that the 46 series battery cells will become the first choice for eVTOL. It remains to be seen when solid-state batteries can meet this demand. At present, we use the domestically produced ternary lithium batteries with the highest energy density, and the battery cell energy density is 320wh/kg. However, in addition to ternary lithium battery manufacturers, we have also established cooperative relationships with metal lithium batteries and hydrogen fuel cell companies." Chen Yan said.
Future: When can it be profitable?
Although technology research and development has not yet kept up with market demand, aviation power batteries have shown a relatively large market prospect.
Zhang Ruifeng introduced that in the short term (2025-2027), the application scenarios of aviation power batteries are mainly drone logistics, sightseeing, etc., with a demand scale of about 5 billion to 8 billion yuan, mainly concentrated in 300Wh/kg lithium iron phosphate and 400Wh/kg ternary batteries. In the medium term (2028-2030), with the gradual commercialization of manned eVTOL, 500Wh/kg lithium metal batteries will become the mainstream, with a market size exceeding 30 billion yuan and an annual compound growth rate of more than 50%. In the long term (after 2030), with the maturity of "hydrogen-lithium battery" hybrid technology, the aviation power battery market may further expand, superimposed with derivative demands such as energy storage and aviation emergency power supply, the overall scale is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan.
Where does the 100 billion market for aviation power batteries come from? There are two major reasons behind this: On the one hand, batteries, as the core components of eVTOL, are expensive and account for a high proportion of the total machine cost. "The cost of eVTOL batteries is directly related to the supply chain integration capability, and is also directly related to the supply volume. Currently, eVTOL batteries are not standardized shelf products, and all need to be customized. Therefore, the battery price cannot be cheap, especially compared with automotive batteries, which can be said to be quite expensive. In the BOM cost, together with the motor and electronic control, it will account for a quarter or even a third of the total cost of an eVTOL." Chen Yan introduced to reporters.
On the other hand, it is affected by the replacement frequency of eVTOL batteries. Chen Yan said: "According to the current technical level of the battery industry, an eVTOL battery can be used for 5-10 years, depending on the number of cycles of the battery itself and the specific application scenario. According to a general assessment, the eVTOL battery market will start to grow in volume in 3 years, and the shipment volume will be one order of magnitude higher than now, and may be another order of magnitude in 5 years."
According to a research report released by Guojin Securities in April this year, the domestic eVTOL battery market will reach 112.6 billion yuan by 2030, including 9.8 billion yuan of the original equipment market and 102.8 billion yuan of the aftermarket market.
In the pre-installed market, according to the "Passenger eVTOL Application and Market White Paper", the cumulative domestic eVTOL demand in 2030 is expected to be 16,316. Assuming that a single eVTOL has a charge of 200kWh and a price of 3 yuan/Wh (the price of aviation-grade batteries is one order of magnitude higher than that of automotive batteries), the corresponding single-machine battery value is 600,000 yuan, and the corresponding pre-installed market is about 9.8 billion yuan.
The aftermarket is more elastic due to the frequency of replacement. It is estimated that under the assumption of 8 flights per day and 1,000 cycles of battery cycle life, the number of replacements of eVTOL batteries reaches 14 times. In the 20-year life cycle of eVTOL, the cumulative domestic eVTOL demand in 2030 is expected to be 16,316. Assuming that the average replacement price is 450,000 yuan per unit, the battery aftermarket will provide a cumulative battery of about 102.8 billion yuan.
The aviation power battery market has a promising prospect, but the commercialization timetable is still unclear. Wang Zeshen believes that the commercialization process of aviation power batteries depends on the coordinated promotion of technological breakthroughs, airworthiness certification and market demand. At present, technologies such as high-energy density, high-safety solid-state batteries and lithium-sulfur batteries are still in the R&D verification stage, and large-scale production and cost control are not yet mature. At the same time, the airworthiness standards are strict and the certification cycle is long, requiring the upstream and downstream of the industry chain to work together to tackle the problem. Although emerging scenarios such as eVTOL bring potential demand, demonstration operations are still the main focus in the short term, and large-scale commercial use is expected to take 5-10 years.
Therefore, it is currently unknown when aviation power batteries can bring profits to lithium battery manufacturers. However, in Mo Ke's view, aviation power battery technology requirements are more stringent and gross profit margins will be higher, which means that the production threshold for corporate profitability will be lower than that of new energy vehicle batteries.
Zhang Ruifeng believes that aviation power batteries have entered the stage of "technical breakthroughs and scenario implementation in parallel" from the "conceptual period". The next 3-5 years will be a critical period for industry differentiation. Companies with technical reserves (such as lithium metal/solid-state batteries), supply chain integration capabilities (such as joint ventures with material manufacturers) and policy resources are expected to be the first to make profits.
“For manned eVTOL batteries, lithium metal batteries are expected to complete airworthiness certification and be installed in small batches between 2026 and 2028, but the initial cost is high, and the cost of a single battery is more than 1 million yuan, the company may achieve break-even through government subsidies, and in the long run it needs economies of scale to reduce costs, that is, the target cost is less than 5,000 yuan/kWh." Zhang Ruifeng said.
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